Руководитель

Описание


Kirill Sossounov

E-mail: ksosunov@gmail.com
mobile: +7 925 439 0204
visa status: permanent resident


Education


1997 – 2000 Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Ph.D. in economics
Ph.D. topic “Essays in the Modeling of Cycles”
Courses taken include:
Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, Dynamic Econometrics, Economic Growth, International Trade, Econometric Modeling


1994 –1996 New Economic School, Moscow, Russia
M.A. in economics. G.P.A. 4.4 (out of 5)
Master’s thesis topic “Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the

Russian Short-term Treasury Bills Market”


1988 – 1993 Moscow State University, Department of Mathematics, Moscow, Russia
Diploma (equivalent to M.Sc) in mathematics and applied mathematics
Specialized in functional analysis and theory of functions
G.P.A. 4.6 (out of 5)


Fields


Macroeconomics, Business cycle theory, International macroeconomics, Monetary economics


Publications





Articles in refereed international journals



Trend inflation and monetary policy rules: determinacy analysis in New Keynesian model with capital accumulation (joint with E. Gerko). B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Dec. 2014. The paper analyzes the effect of positive trend inflation in the framework of a standard New Keynesian model with Calvo price setting and capital accumulation. We are building on the work of Carlstrom and Fuerst (Carlstrom, Charles T., and Timothy S. Fuerst. 2005. “Investment and Interest Rate Policy: A Discrete-Time Analysis.” Journal of Economic Theory 123: 4–20.) and Ascari and Ropele (Ascari, Guido, and Tiziano Ropele. 2007. “Optimal Monetary Policy under Low Trend Inflation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (8): 2568–2583., Ascari, Guido, and Tiziano Ropele. 2009. “Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48 (1): 1557–1584.) who separately considered effects of capital accumulation and trend inflation in a similar context. It is shown that the simultaneous presence of positive trend inflation and capital accumulation greatly affect the determinacy property of equilibrium under this setup. Namely, in the presence of positive trend inflation the determinacy region shrinks, and it is virtually impossible to produce a determinate equilibrium with the Taylor-type rule given a steady state of inflation of more than 5%. Even for a moderate value of 2.5%, the design of the rule that ensures the uniqueness of the equilibrium requires detailed knowledge of the parameters of an economy. We also shоwthat for a large set of plausible parameters, the standard Taylor rule leads to indeterminacy. Alternative monetary policy rules such as interest rate smoothing, output growth targeting and price level targeting are also analyzed. It is shown that the latter improves the determinacy of the model solution, and the best way to guarantee the determinate equilibrium is to use price level targeting in the policy rule.



A Simple Framework for Analyzing Bulls and Bears market. (joint with A. Pagan). Journal of Applied Econometrics (2001) Bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices. To fully describe stock market cycles one would need to know the data generating process (DGP) for equity prices. We begin with a definition of bull and bear markets developed by my co-author in his Walras-Bowley lecture and use the algorithm given there to sort a given time series of equity prices into periods that can be designated as bull and bear markets. The rule to do this is then studied analytically and it is shown that bull and bear market characteristics depend upon the DGP for capital gains. By simulation methods we examine a number of DGP's that are known to fit the data quite well - random walks, GARCH models, and models with duration dependence. We find that a pure random walk provides as good an explanation of bull and bear markets as the more complex statistical models. In the final section of the paper we look at some asset pricing models that appear in the literature from the viewpoint of their success in producing bull and bear markets which resemble those in the data.

Analyzing Indeterminacies in Real Business Cycle Model with Money. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 2000 (issue 2). In this paper, written in response to R. Farmer’s (1997) paper “Money in a real business cycle model”, I shоwthat, although the model constructed in that paper may potentially lead to multiple stationary equilibria (indeterminacy) in the real sector, the parameterization employed by the author does not. Instead, a unique saddle point equilibrium with impulse response functions similar to those of standard real business cycles theories is obtained. By relaxing the assumption of a constant returns to scale production function, a parameterization, similar to the author’s, does indeed create indeterminacy and impulse response functions match the data in similar way to Farmer’s paper.


Other articles


Articles in Russian journals

Dating Russian business cycle (joint with D. Dubovsky and D. Kofanov). Higher School of Economics Economic Journal, 2015.

Determination of the real exchange rate of the Ruble and assessing the policy of real exchange rate targeting (joint with N. Ushakov) Journal of the New Economic Association (2009)

Estimation of the fundamental value of real exchange rate of the Ruble (joint with A. Shumilov). Scientific journal of Higher School of Economics (2005)

Estimation of importance of nominal exchange rate changes to the inflation dynamics in Russia (joint with S. Shmikova). Scientific journal of Higher School of Economics (2005)

Inflationary consequences of real exchange rate targeting: estimation for Russia.(joint with O. Zamulin). Annual conference of Higher School of Economics proceedings (2005)


Unpublished working papers

Estimation of the small New-Keynesian model for Russia and assessing the inflation targeting policy (joint with E. Gromova and O. Zaichenko)

Optimal monetary policy in a resourced-based small open economy: case of Russia (joint with O. Zamulin) CEFIR WP 2007.

Can the oil prices explain real appreciation of the Ruble? (joint with O. Zamulin) CEFIR WP 2006, revise and resubmit to Journal of Transition.

Nominal Rigidities, Real Rigidities and Output Persistence. Mimeo, ANU (1999)

Response of Output to the Monetary Shock in a DGE Model with Nominal Rigidities Mimeo, ANU (1999).


Testing the Rational expectations Hypothesis on Russian Short-term Treasury Bills market. (Master’s thesis, 1996).





Professional and Teaching Experience



2019 – present Central Bank of Russian Federation
Department of monetary policy
Head of research.
Conducting research and supervising research activity of other staff.

2017 – 2019 Central Bank of Russian Federation
Department of monetary policy
Head of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting division.
Modelling and forecasting of Russian economy
Preparation of materials for Board of Directors meetings
Briefing Bank’s officials on the development in Russian economy and abroad and possible implication for monetary policy

2014 – 2015 E. Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy
Head of macroeconomics department
Applied research of the Russian economy

2005 – 2017 State University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow Russia
Associate professor
Conducting research
Teaching: Master’s and Batchelor’s level macroeconomic courses
Supervised Master’s thesis of more than 20 students

2003 – 2005 Institute for An Open Economy, Moscow Russia
Head of macroeconomic policy department
Applied research and monitoring of Russian macroeconomic policy

2000 – 2008 New Economic School, Moscow Russia
Assistant professor – until 2003, Visiting professor – since 2003
Conducting research
Teaching: Master’s level macroeconomic courses
Supervised Master’s thesis of more than 40 students
Had 2 papers published in leading international journals

1996 –1997
Jan – Apr 1998
Feb – Apr 1999 Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation
Department of Macroeconomic Policy, Economic Expert Group
Expert
As a member of a team I took part in preparing Russia’s first credit rating presentation and successful placement of the first of Russia’s two sovereign Eurobond issues. Consulted Government on different topics of monetary and fiscal policy. Took part in negotiations with IMF on preparation of economic forecast and policy targets.


1995 New Economic School
Teaching assistant to for the course Economic of Transition by D.Kahn




Related Skills


Languages: native Russian
Computer skills: all major spreadsheets, word processors and statistics packages (MatLab, GAUSS, Stata, Eveiew and other), basic programming skill (VBA, SQL, C)


Visa Status

Permanent residence visa


References

are available upon request